Full Reading: Week 2, Section 5

Caucus Timeline-A year to 2016 Presidential Elections

Dr. Steffen Schmidt 

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A year ahead. Almost a year before the next presidential election, a decision is made by the Democratic and Republican National Committees to hold caucuses. The caucuses are a political event and have NO CONNECTION to either the national or state election laws and procedures.

Months ahead. The national party committees next schedule the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary dates. Also the next two primaries take place in Nevada and South Carolina and are intended to give “regional representation” to the early official delegate selection events. Iowa covers the “Midwest,” New Hampshire includes the “Northeast,” Nevada encompasses roughly the “West” and “Southwest” and South Carolina (SC) covers the “South.” South Carolina is fighting this schedule in 2016, because it wants to go before Nevada.

January of election year and until caucus and primary season. The party national committees also need to fend off efforts by other states to “cut in line” and schedule theirs earlier than the caucuses, which, by definition, are the “first in the nation” official candidate selection event. The New Hampshire primary MUST be the second event by agreement. It should be made clear that the Secretary of State of New Hampshire, Bill Gardner will fight to the death to maintain this sequence!

January 24, 2015. “Unofficial events” that feature potential presidential contenders. In 2015 the conservative Iowa Freedom Summit was held in Des Moines on January 24. The event was sponsored by Citizens United PAC and hosted by Iowa Congressman Steve King, R-4^th District.

Independent groups. In 2015-16 so-called “independent groups” and Political Action Committees are spending large amounts of money to sponsor candidate events to try to influence the outcome of all elections. For example, the billionaire Koch Brothers have budgeted $889 million for the 2016 elections. That is as much as both major political parties’ budget. The scope of this is unprecedented.

March 7, 2015. The Iowa Agriculture Summit was held Saturday, March 7, 2015 to educate Presidential candidates and the news media about agricultural policy and issues. This event was sponsored and organized by Republican campaign donor and Chairman of the Board of the Regents of Iowa’s state universities Bruce Rastetter, who made a fortune in Iowa pork production and ethanol.          

April 2015. Conservative evangelical Christian leaders Steve Scheffler of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition and Bob Vander Plaats of the Family Leader also organize an event for conservative Republican candidates in the winter of the year before the caucuses (2015).  According to the Des Moines Register, “The Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, the social conservative political group run by Iowa Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler, will host potential presidential candidates at a "spring kick off" forum on April 25, 2015.”

June 6. Iowa Senator Joni Ernst’s, “Roast and Ride” which will probably be held in central Iowa and is expected to be “… a family friendly event featuring motorcycle rides and a pork-heavy menu,” according to Politico. [i]The Republican leadership was delighted but also apprehensive of this huge number of contenders. In recent Presidential elections the debates of potential candidates were too big, unfocused, and divisive. The fondest hope of Republicans was that the Iowa caucuses would “winnow the field” – reduce the number of surviving contenders by, as they say, “killing off” the weakest. [ii]

August 2015. There are other events of which the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll held in August in Ames, Iowa is the most famous. It is a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party and a festival where GOP contenders try to attract supporters and win the straw poll. It has been called a “beauty contest” since no delegates are selected. Normally a straw poll would've held by Republicans but the party decided to eliminate the poll in 2015 because it came under so much criticism and the 2016 Republican contenders were balking about the cost and distraction.

Debates between the contenders in each party are also organized and planned. These are party-sponsored debates by each political party. Later, of course, after each party has chosen a contender at their national conventions, debates take place between the contenders of each party.

January/February, 2016. The Iowa caucuses take place early in the election year often in January. In 2016 the Iowa caucuses will be held Monday, Feb. 1, 2016, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9, the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 20, and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 27. All other states can hold their primaries any time from March 1 through June according to the National Journal. The Iowa and New Hampshire dates are set according to an agreement between the two states and the acquiescence of the national committees of each party.

Links to an external site.

February-June, 2016. Primaries and caucuses take place across the United States sometimes lasting as long as June. Some of these are organized into regional events with names such as “Super Tuesday” in which many different states have their contests. The idea is that these “super” events may give a candidate enough delegates to finish off opponents and basically end the chase after delegates.

July, 2016. After what is usually a grueling season of campaigning, each party selects a candidate at their respective summer conventions. “The 2016 Republican National Convention will convene in Cleveland, Ohio on July 18-21, 2016. The RNC chose a 2016 convention date much earlier than in recent elections, allowing the Republican nominee to draw upon campaign cash designated to be spent only in the general election.” (Source: 2016 Republican Convention) Links to an external site.. In part, Ohio was chosen because it is a battleground state, hotly contested for electoral college votes. The Democrats will hold their convention in Philadelphia, PA the week of July 26, 2016. 

August 15. The Family Leadership Summit will be held in Ames, IA sponsored by the conservative Family Leader group. “The Summit will provide guests the opportunity to hear top conservative national leaders, gathered together in one place, cast their leadership vision for advancing conservative principles.” [iii]

October and November. Iowa GOP Reagan Dinner, and the Iowa Democratic Part Jefferson Jackson Dinner.

At this point the candidate selection process is over.

July-November 8, 2016. Now debates between the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates of each party take place. (Note: Sometimes third parties are also invited to debate the major party candidates.) Now the race towards the general election goes into full-blown mode with billions spent on organization and very expensive media. The election takes place by Constitutional mandate, on the second Tuesday in November, which is Nov. 8, 2016.

December. “On the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, the electors cast their ballots. Nothing in the Constitution or federal law requires that the electors vote along with their state's popular vote. [These are called “faithless electors.”] At least 270 electoral votes are required to elect a president. If this majority is not reached, the House of Representatives will elect the president.”[iv] 

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[i] Please see this website for a concise summary of US Presidential Elections Links to an external site.

[ii] The Importance of being Ernest Links to an external site.

[iii] The Family Leadership Summit Links to an external site.

[iv] "http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/.html." Fact Monster. © 2000–2013 Pearson Education, publishing as Fact Monster. 27 Jan. 2015 http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0878225.html Links to an external site.