Retail Politics “Matt Wuerker depicts the 2008 contenders for the Democratic Party nomination, including Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama (center), wooing Iowa voters. The “caucus” referred to in the cartoon is a meeting of citizens who select Iowa’s favorite for the election ballot. Several states have caucuses. Most hold primary elections. “
January 24, 1972 – "Uncommitted" (36%), Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%) The first Iowa caucuses were a direct consequence of the chaotic, “tumultuous” Democratic Party national convention in Chicago in 1968. Many party leaders saw this as a sign of a political party that needed change. The McGovern–Fraser Commission which added new, more transparent, more “democratic” rules that required more representation by women and minorities in party business.
I experienced the 1972 Iowa caucuses as a newly minted professor at Iowa State University. I vividly remember the excitement of Democrats in Iowa and especially the fact that the ground rules for this year were largely laid in Ames, Iowa. Dougan’s Deli was the crossroads of many of the party activists who configured these rules and it was immensely exciting to have known Cliff Larsen who in 1970, the year I started my job as a political scientist at Iowa State, became chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. Cliff’s family had owned and ran West Street Grocery, later Dougan’s Deli, on 2900 West Street in Ames for many years.
Ames history reports that, “Cliff left the store in 1964 to work with [Congressman] Neal Smith. Cliff and his wife were each Story County chairmen, and Cliff was also state chairman. Cliff Larson and Richard Bender put together proportionate caucuses.” Iowa State University chemical engineering professor Richard Seagrave was also one of the pioneers in drafting the new caucus procedure. Dennis Brumm puts it well when he wrotes, “Dugan's Deli was a local deli/bar and meeting place which was frequented by a motley assortment of folks who were often affiliated with groups considered to be part of the local counterculture.”(Source: The whole of Ames counter cultureLinks to an external site.). The Democratic Party reform movement that led to the caucuses was indeed partly grounded in the liberal movement and counterculture of the late 1960’s which opposed the Vietnam war, promoted more liberal sexual relations, loved Rock n’ Roll, and challenges “the establishment.” That part of the caucus history is often forgotten. I remember vividly the “hippies” and gay’s and lesbians who were very much still in the closet in 1972 feeling comfortable at Dougan’s. In spite of that it was the Democratic Party of Iowa consisting also of very traditional Democrats who supported the modern caucus movement.
Gavin Aronsen notes the “obituary” of Dougan’s when he writes, “Dugan’s became the Boheme Bistro in 1994. That was the year Dugan’s Deli, a hub for the Ames counterculture of the 1970s and ‘80s, closed on West Street.” This was the end of an era. Dougan’s became this very popular venue with a great “disco” lighted dance floor and was frequented especially by the many international students at Iowa State University. It too was closed but plans to bulldoze the building and put up more private student apartments was averted and as of this writing it is still a funky place for a beer or a glass of wine and students as well as faculty are still it’s main clients.
Richard Bender, mentioned above, deserves a lot more visibility and credit for the caucus system than he has gotten. In a retirement tribute to bender by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin this crucial role was well stated; “… no recounting of Richard's legacy in Iowa would be complete without mentioning his central role in devising and implementing the modern Iowa caucuses system. In 1971, Richard was working as a staffer for the Iowa Democratic Party, which was seeking a way to increase the active involvement of rank-and-file members in choosing our party's Presidential candidate. The party also needed a timely and effective way of reporting voting results. Richard's creativity, as well as his training in mathematics and statistics, made him the key player in developing the Iowa Democratic Party caucuses. Today, the caucuses are little changed from what he developed four decades ago.” (Source:Congressional RecordLinks to an external site.)
McGovern had a terrible problem when his vice Presidential running mate Thomas Eagleton of Missouri suffered a psychological breakdown and had to be replaced by Sargeant Shriver Peace Corps Director and close associate of the Kennedy family. He won the Democratic nomination but went on to lose in a landslide to Richard Nixon.
Let me quote a former Democratic Party leader whose observations to Iowa Public Television are perhaps the most significant explanation of why the Iowa caucuses became so important.
“Between 1973 and 1977 Tom Whitney was chair of the Democratic Party.
Whitney: "Basically after the ‘74 elections, we organized a very, very significant kind of effort to convince first the candidates that they ought to be in Iowa because the national press was going to be here, and then to convince the national press that they should be in Iowa because the candidates were going to be here." (Source:History of Iowa CaucusesLinks to an external site.)
The reason this is so significant is that the Iowa caucuses have been described as a media event. On caucus night no delegates are actually elected for the National Conventions. Thus, it is the presence of and reporting world wide by the news media that makes the Iowa event important. It is perceived front-runner status and the momentum created by the buzz of the Iowa victory that makes it important for candidates to come and campaign in Iowa.
January 19, 1976 – "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%) Even though “uncommitted” actually “won” this year, the relatively unknown Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter won the nomination and went on to become President defeating President Gerald Ford.
January 21, 1980 – Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%) Many Democrats in Iowa were unhappy with Carter and backed an Iowa favorite, liberal Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. I should explain that in Iowa the Democrats have a strong progressive liberal wing. The Republicans have a strong conservative faction, which in the past decade has been called the “Tea Party” wing. Terrible economic conditions including inflation coupled with stagnation (Stagflation) and the Iranian “student” takeover of the US Embassy in Teheran gave Ronald Reagan an opening. Reagan won by a landslide, Electoral vote: Carter/Mondale 49 - Reagan/Bush 48
February 20, 1984 – Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%) Vice President Mondale won the caucuses and chose the first woman Vice Presidential running mate Geraldine Ferraro. He lost the general election by a landslide: Electoral vote: Mondale/Ferraro 13 - Reagan/Bush 523
February 8, 1988 – Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%) Third place caucus winner Massachusetts Governor Dukakis won the nomination but lost the race for the White House to Vice President George H. W. Bush.
February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%) This caucus season was irrelevant because “native son” Iowa Senator Tom Harkin decided to “throw his hat in the ring” and Harkin overwhelmingly won the caucuses. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton won the nomination and subsequently became President. Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot ran as a third party candidate getting no electoral votes but obtaining 18.9% of the popular vote which sucked away votes from the Bush campaign in critical states. The Clinton/Gore ticket only won with 43.0% of the popular vote.
February 12, 1996 – Bill Clinton (98%), "Uncommitted" (1%), Ralph Nader (1%) As incumbent President Clinton had visibility and was able to defeat his Republican opponent Kansas Senator Bob Dole but once again Ross Perot of Texas ran syphoning off 8.4% of the vote and enough Electoral College votes to give Clinton/Gore another victory with 49.2% of the popular vote.
January 24, 2000 – Al Gore (63%) and Bill Bradley (37%). Vice President Gore won the nomination and chose the first Jewish vice Presidential candidate Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate. In one of the most tense and remarkable Presidential elections Gore lost to Republican George W. Bush by a US Supreme Court ruling which, after a month of inconclusive ballot recounting in the state of Florida, ordered the recount stopped and whoever was ahead at that moment to get Florida’s electoral votes. That was the winning number of electoral votes for Bush/Cheney to win. The results were: Electoral vote: Gore/Lieberman 266 - Bush/Cheney 271 giving them the victory. Gore actually received more “popular votes” than the Republican ticket which is an anomaly that is hard for many to understand. Popular vote: Gore/Lieberman 50,999,897 (48.4%) - Bush/Cheney 50,456,002 (47.9%)
In American Presidential elections Popular Vote per se does not get one elected. It is the Electoral College (EC) votes which are gathered by winning enough EC votes state by state until achieving a majority that gives a team the win. Electoral College results: Gore 266; Bush 271.
January 19, 2004 – John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%) Kerry won the nomination but was defeated in November by the Bush/Cheney ticket in a relatively close race. His running mate was former North Carolina Senator John Edwards.
January 3, 2008 – Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%) A young first term, multi-racial, US Senator from Illinois Barack Hussein Obama won the Iowa Caucuses against the presumed unstoppable and well financed former New York Senator and wife of President Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton. Second place winner John Edwards, a very promising contender was destroyed by a sexual affair with a campaign videographer and the added “yuck” factor that his wife was gravely ill with cancer. Obama went on to win the Democratic Party nomination after a protracted campaign that covered every US state and territory and lasted through June which was an extraordinary campaign. Obama finally accumulated enough delegate support to lock up the nomination and Hillary Clinton finally conceded. Obama’s Iowa victory was extraordinary because Iowa is one of the least racially diverse states and Obama, of course, ultimately won the Presidency to become the first “black” president. The criticism of the Iowa caucuses that it is too “white” was laid to rest with this extraordinary event. The Republican ticket of Arizona Senator John McCain and former Alaska Governor Sara Palin was somewhat controversial, because Palin was an electrifying but also a divisive and inexperienced candidate. Final Electoral vote:Obama/Biden 365 - McCain/Palin 173
January 3, 2012 - Barack Obama (98%), "Uncommitted" (2%) Obama won the caucuses in an uneventful and uncontested year and the ticker of Obama/Biden went on to win a decisive second term against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Popular vote:Obama/Biden 65,915,796 (51.1%) - Romney/Ryan 60,933,500 (47.2%).
Republicans
1976 – Gerald Ford (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%) The Republicans followed the Democratic lead and designated Iowa as its first in the nation venue to be also followed by the New Hampshire primary. It is important to note here that the method of selecting a presidential candidate is NOT determined by the United States Constitution NOR by the federal government. The national party organization of the Democrats and Republicans make the rules for caucuses, primaries and for the dates for these state contests. The Democrats and Republicans have coordinated their efforts so that Iowa is the first for each thus facilitating the massive media coverage which has grown since the 1976 caucuses. In 1976 President Ford won a close caucus contest in Iowa. However, he was a lackluster candidate and lost a close race for President against Democratic political newcomer Jimmy Carter.
1980 – George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%) This was a lively contest with numerous candidates. This year was another contest that confirmed the rule “you don’t have to WIN the Iowa Caucuses just come in first, second or third.” Former California Governor Ronald Reagan won in Iowa, chose George H. W. Bush as his running mate and became the President of the United States.
1984 – President Ronald Reagan was unopposed and went on to win a second term as President. The result was a lopsided victory against the Democratic ticket. Electoral vote:Reagan/Bush 523 - Mondale/Ferraro 13. Reagan also decisively won the popular vote. Popular vote:Reagan/Bush 54,455,472 (58.8%) - Mondale/Ferraro 37,577,352 (40.6%) Reagan went on to become an iconic figure in the Republican Party as the father of modern GOP conservative ideas and he is still venerated as a hero by conservatives.
1988 – Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%) Senator Bob Dole of Kansas won this year. There is a trend of “neighbors” to the state of Iowa being well known and being sentimental favorites. However, Vice President George H. W. Bush won the republican nomination. This again underscores the mantra that you do NOT have to win the Iowa caucuses you just have to come in first, second, or third.
Bush and his young Vice Presidential running mate Indiana Congressman Dan Quayle won a significant victory against the Democratic ticket of Michael Dukakis from Massachusetts. Dukakis was badly damaged by two incidents. He was asked if he favored the death penalty for cases of rape and murder and specifically is his wife Kitty was raped and killed would he support the death penalty. His answer was cold and stunning lecture on how the death penalty is always wrong.
His supposed “weakness” in being strong on law enforcement, which was the Republican claim, was reinforced with an attack ad against him that featured grainy images of a black prisoner Willie Horton a felon convicted to a life sentence for murder who was allowed out of jail for a weekend leave on the very weak furlough program when Dukakis was Governor of Massachusetts. Horton went on to commit assault, armed robbery and rape. In Oxon Hill, Maryland he twice raped a local woman after pistol-whipping, knifing, binding, and gagging her fiancé. Dukakis as governor had approved of the Massachusetts furlough program as a way of “rehabilitating” criminals. According to Roger Simon of the newspaper the Baltimore Sun, Bush's campaign manager, Lee Atwater, actually said, "By the time we're finished, they're going to wonder whether Willie Horton is Dukakis' running mate."
Dukakis was decisively beaten in the general election. Electoral vote:Bush/Quayle 426 - Dukakis/Bentsen 111.
1992 – President George H. W. Bush was unopposed in the Iowa Caucuses. However, he was unfortunate to have Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot running as an independent for President and syphoning off almost 19% of the popular vote and most importantly taking away votes in crucial states so that Bush lost the electoral college vote to a young Democratic Party ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore. The result was - Electoral vote: Bush/Quayle 168 - Clinton/Gore 370.
1996 – Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%) Kansas Senator Bob Dole again won the Iowa caucuses and this time he beat back a huge field of diverse Republican contenders that included Deeply conservative political commentator Pat Buchanan, Wall Street millionaire Steve Forbes and several other candidates. Dole proved to be a “grumpy” and even “angry” candidate and was no match for the upbeat and youthful Bill Clinton and Al Gore even while Clinton was under serious attack by Republicans in Congress and was the target of an effort to impeach and remove him from office. Clinton also weathered the Monica Lewinski sex scandal. It also did not help Dole to have conservative billionaire businessman H. Ross Perot running a third party campaign and perhaps winning enough popular votes (but no electoral votes) to deprive the Republican ticket from obtaining the necessary electoral votes to win. Popular vote: Dole/Kemp 39,197,469 (40.7%) - Clinton/Gore 47,401,185 (49.2%) - Perot/Choate 8,085,294 (8.4%)
2000 – George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%) Texas Governor George W. Bush, son of President George H. W. Bush ramped up an aggressive Iowa campaign and won the Iowa caucuses against an aggressive field of contenders. Bush went on to win the Presidency in an unprecedented circumstance in which the election could not be called because the vote in Florida was so close that a recount was demanded by the Bush campaign. The recount proceeded for a month with each iteration of the vote producing different results because of terribly unreliable ballots using punch cards which had “chads” (small pieces of cardboard that had to be “punched” through by the voter at the polling places.
Now a Constitutional crisis was looming and finally the matter was appealed to the United States Supreme Court that for the first time in history ordered the counting in Florida stopped. Whoever had the greatest number of popular votes at that moment would be awarded the Florida Electoral Votes and declared President of the United States. The result was - Electoral vote:Bush/Cheney 271 - Gore/Lieberman 266. However, the Popular vote was actually won by the Democratic ticket: Popular Vote - Bush/Cheney 50,456,002 (47.9%) - Gore/Lieberman 50,999,897 (48.4%).
2004 – George W. Bush was unopposed in the Iowa caucuses. It is very rare for a serving President to be challenged in the caucuses and primaries. Bush won a very close reelection against the ticket headed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Electoral vote:Bush/Cheney 286 - Kerry/Edwards 251.
2008 – Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%) This year was very interesting because the conservative former Governor of Arkansas won the caucuses. Huckabee connected with Iowa’s faith based, religious Republican caucus participants in part because he had also served as pastor at Immanuel Baptist Church in Pine Bluff, Arkansas from 1980 to 1986, and the Beech Street Baptist Church in Texarkana from 1986 to 1992. Huckabee was too religious and conservative for republican voters in subsequent states.
However, Arizona Senator McCain, who really did not participate in the Iowa caucuses and came in fourth actually won the nomination. McCain therefore BROKE the presumed Iowa caucus rule that to win the party nomination you must come in first, second or third in Iowa. The saying has been “After the caucuses there are only three tickets out of Iowa.” Former Des Moines register political columnist and one of America’s most respected political writers David Yepsen refined the phrase by saying that the tickets are “first class, coach, and standby.” McCain chose a very dynamic but also dubious vice presidential running mate, former Alaska governor Sara Palin. He was beaten by the ticket headed by Barak Obama. Popular vote: McCain/Palin, (45.7%) - Obama/Biden (52.9%)
2012 - Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (0.6%) The 2012 caucuses were very controversial because the vote on caucus night was very close. Moreover, some results were inaccurately called in by precincts to the Republican Party caucus headquarters. The New york Times reported, “Rick Santorum’s campaign claimed a belated victory in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19 — more than two weeks after the contest — when certified results showed him leading Mitt Romney by 34 votes, a reversal from the eight-vote edge than Mr. Romney held on caucus night. But Matt Strawn, the chairman of Iowa’s Republican Party, said that an actual winner could not be determined in the caucuses because results from eight of 1,774 precincts could not be located for certification. Of the votes that could be reviewed by the party, the officials said, Mr. Santorum finished narrowly ahead of Mr. Romney.”(Source:Iowa Republican CaucusesLinks to an external site. )
As a result of the difficulties the Republicans had in accurately reporting caucus results and the ridicule and criticism that ensured the Iowa Republican Party has initiated reforms in how the precinct organizations record votes (more formally than before) and call in the results in the 2016 caucuses. The fact is that Romney and Huckabee only were eight votes apart in the vote that was finally reported after corrections. My point has always been that the 2012 Iowa caucuses were actually a tie. There were two winners. Remember that on caucus night the votes do NOT allocate any delegates. It’s just an impressionistic “straw poll” – a measure of the popularity and support each candidate has on caucus night.
As indicated above, I have observed, researched, written about and done media analysis on the Iowa caucuses since the first of the modern era caucuses in 1972. I have also had the privilege and pleasure of meeting every American presidential candidate since 1972. That’s because Iowa is “retail politics” where the candidates come and spend a lot of time “meeting and greeting” voters in café’s, community centers, and people’s homes. They also come to Iowa State University where they try to recruit supporters and campaign helpers or even campaign staff. Many of my former students since 1970 have risen to successful and prominent positions in consulting firms, campaigns, Congressional staff, some have been elected to Congress, and even worked in the White House for both democrats and Republicans in large part because they have had the opportunity to meet Presidential candidates and their campaign staff during the Iowa caucus process.
This information is compiled from the records of the Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party, the Associated Press, New York Times, and the Des Moines Register.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the interviews in this course are of the participants. This course, including the instructor, does not endorse any political party, candidate or ideology.