Full Reading: Week 2, Section 2

Straw Polls

Dr. Steffen Schmidt 

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Dictionary – Straw poll - “an unofficial ballot conducted as a test of opinion.”

A Straw Poll is basically a “beauty contest” or “popularity contest” which has no direct bearing on, say, the Presidential selection process. In a straw poll people are invited to express their preferences and the results are then reported by the media. 

The Ames (Iowa) Straw Poll is a political event that has been held in Ames, Iowa for roughly 35 years. It invites Republicans who want to run for President to come to Ames, Iowa in the summer before the Iowa political caucuses. During the straw poll, people can come to the venue on Iowa State University’s campus and enjoy free food, listen to music, meet other political activists and then cast a ballot for their favorite Republican Presidential candidate.

Image Source: The Iowa Republican Links to an external site.  

Some like the snarky Salon political writer Simon Maloyn seem to hate the Straw Poll. In a column entitled “Long live the Ames straw poll: The GOP’s quadrennial freak-show free-for-all soldiers on: The Ames straw poll gets a new lease on life, and a new opportunity to embarrass Republicans everywhere,” he trashes the event because sometimes it propels unviable contenders such as Michelle Bachman congresswoman from Minnesota to first place (Source: Long live the Ames Straw Pol Links to an external site.l, Salon.com).

In fact the Ames Straw Poll is a good event and I am one of its biggest fans. Here is what I blogged.

“Since 1979 every summer before the Iowa caucuses the Republican Party of Iowa organized a Straw Poll - the Ames GOP Straw Poll- where presidential contenders could show their stuff, haul in "supporters" and try to get buzz by "winning" the straw poll. The poll is not a great predictor of who will win the Iowa Caucuses nor who will win the GOP nomination NOR who will become President of the United States. Those are the criticisms of the Straw poll.

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad wants the straw poll killed because it distracts from the caucuses. I'm not sure how since we have had the straw poll since 1979 and it did nothing to undermine or "weaken" the importance of the caucuses for OVER 30 YEARS!

I know that the governor was frightened by MN congresswoman Michelle Bachmann's victory in 2011. BUT her victory was short lived and she came in near last in the actual caucuses.

My argument is that the Ames Straw poll is NOT the Iowa caucuses and it has completely different purposes including:

1. It is a great political festival during a slow news period. The media LOVE the poll.
2. The straw poll also allows extreme candidates (Bachmann) to scare the bejeebees out of Republicans who then ramp up support for more credible candidates such as Romney.
3. The straw poll is economic development and creates hundreds of jobs in the transportation, printing, tech, and hospitality industries. It also stimulates the airlines, Des Moines airport, and charter bus companies.

I love the straw poll and have had a lot of fun watching the candidates try to outdo each other in organizing support, hiring musicians, serving fantastic barbeque, and otherwise creating a festive and fun political event. What's wrong with that?

I’m a big fan of the Straw Poll. I have even called publicly for the Democrats to also organize a straw poll and maybe call it the Thomas Jefferson - Andrew Jackson Democratic Party Politipalooza.” (See: Ames Straw Poll, Steffen Scdmidt) Links to an external site.

The Boston Globe ran an AP story on this,

“In January of 2015 the Republican Party of Iowa voted to keep the straw poll. Republicans in Iowa have opted to carry on with their presidential straw poll, a summer political tradition that detractors decry as a sideshow.

Despite criticism from some prominent Republicans, including Gov. Terry Branstad, the Republican Party of Iowa's central committee unanimously voted Saturday to continue the event.

Committee members said the poll energizes the party base and serves as an important early test of a candidate's campaign strength.

"It is indeed an opportunity for candidates that are lesser known with not nearly the financing that some candidates would have to really have an impact," said committee member Loras Schulte. "This is kind of the kickoff to the national election, if you will."

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said the event will be held in August, but the date and location must still be determined.”

(See: Iowa Republicans vote to continue Straw Poll, Herald.com Links to an external site.)

Results of Past Ames Straw Polls

Des Moines Register writer Jason Noble points out that

 “For all the hullabaloo that surrounds it, the Republican straw poll is actually a pretty unreliable predictor of the ultimate Iowa caucus winner, much less the eventual nominee. In six presidential cycles dating back to 1980, the straw poll winner (or co-winner) went on to capture just three caucuses, two nominations and one presidential election.

1979: None equaled the political carnivals of later years, but Iowa saw at least six informal straw polls ahead of the 1980 GOP caucuses — all of which were won by former congressman and CIA director George H.W. Bush. The most significant came at a party fundraiser in Ames in October 1979, when Bush captured 36 percent of the 1,454 votes cast. He went on to win the 1980 caucuses, but lost the nomination to Ronald Reagan.”

Does the Ames Straw Poll reliably predict the winner of the Iowa caucuses, the Republican who will get the nomination of the party, and reliably predict the winner of the Presidential election in November?

Well heck no!

You can ask the exact same question about other polls and about the predictions by pundits. In 2010 many polls and most Republican pundits predicted that Mitt Romney would win the election in November. He did not! So now we need to stop all polling and all pundit predictions because so many are so terribly wrong. Right? Of course not!

The Ames Straw Poll results show interesting information that I will analyze correctly for you in this piece of research because everyone else seems to have missed some of the obvious benefits of this event. 

August 1979 George H. W. Bush won the Ames Straw Poll. He went on to win the Iowa caucuses in large measure, because if a moderate Republican like Bush could make his case at the Ames Poll he deserved the victory at the very least for his organizational skills. Ronald Reagan beat him for the GOP nomination and went on to win the White House. It was the year for “the Great Communicator” and the likeable, humorous Reagan who got a lot of crossover voters. “Regan Democrats” came to his candidacy as did many independents.  But, I reiterate that Bush established himself in the Straw Poll and caucuses and won Reagan’s approval as Vice President. I will argue that without the Straw Poll and caucus victories, George H. W. Bush would never have ultimately become President of the United States.

August 1987 Conservative Evangelical preacher Pat Robertson won the Ames Straw Poll. Most analysts, especially East Coast dandies laugh and say “see how bad the straw poll is in predicting winners.” Instead, I will argue that smart analysts such as myself asked, “Why did Robertson win?” The answer of course was a weather vane of sorts that indicated a strong new political force in Iowa, Evangelical Christians, who grew until they are today a formidable in the GOP. Bob Dole won the Iowa caucuses but George H. W. Bush, THE WINNER of the previous Ames Straw poll and Iowa caucuses won the nomination of his party and also won the White House. Bush’s wins established his credentials with conservative Republicans in other parts of the country thus sealing his nomination.

August 1995 Kansas Senator Bob Dole and Texas Republican Senator Phil Gramm tied in the poll. Bob Dole also won the Iowa caucuses (see, the straw poll nailed it) and won the GOP nomination for President. That’s pretty darn good and the Iowa political opportunity can only give a candidate so much. It does NOT also guarantee a November victory! (Bill Clinton became President that year).

August 1999 - George W. Bush (son of the former President) won the Straw poll, won the Iowa caucuses, won the GOP nomination AND won the general election (by a squeaker and a Supreme Court ruling). So this year the Ames Straw poll scored not just a trifecta but a full victory from Ames to the White House. If you analyze the environment in 1999 it will become clear that the Iowa victories were crucial for Bush, a self declared “compassionate conservative.” He won over Republican voters across the country including voters in conservative states, BECAUSE Iowa has a reputation among Republicans as a reliable measure of a candidate.

August 2007 - Mitt Romney won the straw poll. However, he did not win the Iowa caucuses, which were taken by Mike Huckabee, a conservative minister and former governor of Arkansas. Never mind the Ames Straw Poll, Huckabee did NOT win the GOP Presidential nomination; that was won by Arizona Senator John McCain.

So, I ask, does this mean that the Iowa caucuses are not very reliable? Not necessarily. There is rich data to be gleaned from each of these victories but also the defeats. For example, already in 2007 Huckabee was connecting with Iowa voters. In 2015 Huckabee quit his job with Fox, because he was contemplating another run for President. Mitt Romney won the straw poll and then, of course went on in 2010 to tie for the Iowa caucuses and actually get the GOP nomination, but lost to Barack Obama. In 2015 Romney was once again exploring his prospects for the White House in 2016. Looking at the 2007 Ames Straw poll and squeezing it for data was a very useful and productive exercise. McCain, of course, lost to Barack Obama.

August 2011 - This was the Ames straw poll that set off a big soul searching about the validity of the caucuses in predicting GOP candidate support. Minnesota congresswoman Michelle Bachman won the Straw Poll.  In the Republican Party she represented the Tea Party wing, a very conservative faction, which has disagreed with and directly taken on the establishment including House Speaker Republican.

John Boehner. who has faced challenges to his position as leader and Speaker of the House Republicans.

The Iowa and indeed the national GOP was shocked by her success. Other candidates worked very hard to win the caucuses and make sure Bachman’s chances to win were reduced.

Former Pennsylvania Governor Rick Santorum narrowly won the caucuses over Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (they really tied). HOWEVER, Santorum actually represented the SAME trend in the Iowa GOP as Bachman so that the Straw Poll results were indicative of a new and powerful ideological faction of the Iowa GOP. It was a mistake to dismiss Bachman’s Straw Poll victory as irrelevant, because it was actually a metric about an ideological segment of the Republicans than about Bachman herself. Santorum did NOT win the party nomination, which instead was scored by the second place winner in the Iowa caucuses Mitt Romney, once again proving that Iowa is a very reliable bell weather. Romney lost to Barack Obama in the general election and it’s worth mentioning that Democrat Obama himself was a winner of the Iowa caucuses.

The takeaway. Think of the Ames Straw Poll as one piece of a multi-year football or basketball tradition.

First of all, of course you watch games to see who will win each game. But sometimes, strange teams that have no place winning, walk away with the prize. You don’t look at those games as illegitimate; you analyze them carefully. What went wrong with the other team? What can we learn from this game that might be instructive for the next game?

Second, you analyze teams and players over several seasons, because what happened this year and next year may offer a glimpse of trends that are emerging. This could help coaches and players strategize for upcoming games and also future seasons.

The straw poll is not a make or break event. It’s part of a multi year process and ignoring caucus results is a very bad idea. Every event including polls by the media are full of metrics that can reveal a lot about ideological and candidate trends.  It is worth carefully scrutinizing the Ames Straw Poll because it can reveal some very important political data.

In 2015 the Republican National Committee approved the straw poll so long as it was featured as a fundraiser and NOT as part of the Iowa caucuses or the overall Republican candidate selection process. The Iowa Republican Party voted to continue the poll The poll will be held in Boone, Iowa at the Central Iowa Expo facility.

Unfortunately, the 2015 straw poll became the focus of speculation and controversy when candidate Mike Huckabee declared in May that he would not participate. This prompted a flurry of discussion about what other contenders might also skip the poll.

In spite of his early opposition Gov Branstand encouraged all Republican candidates to participate in the event.

A second issue arose when it was discovered that the Expo facility was in financial trouble. The US Department of Agriculture had issued a loan guarantee with prominent Iowa Republicans helping lobby for this. Moreover, Boone County also guaranteed a large loan. By the summer of 2015 the buzz was that taxpayers could end up eating these loans which would be a very negative situation especially for Republicans who are often opposed to taxpayer bailouts.

As a result the future of the Iowa Straw Poll was in doubt. 

 Test yourself on Iowa Straw Polls