Week 4: Future of Caucuses, Section 1

Brief snapshot of 2016 Presidential Race

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The 2016 elections will see a huge Republican field expressing an interest contrasted by a very small number of Democrats with Hillary Clinton dominating the news.

The Iowa caucuses will be more crucial than ever as a testing ground for Republican candidates. The weakest will be eliminated thus “winnowing” the field so that a winner could quickly emerge and take on the Democratic opponent.

It will become clear very quickly that 2016 will be the most expensive election in history with the billionaire Koch brothers and the group Citizens United pledging almost a billion dollars. Democrats are also harvesting HUGE amounts from wealthy patrons such as hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist “Tom” Steyer, his wife Kathryn Ann Taylor, business magnate George Soros, and Reid Hoffman, silicon valley entrepreneur.

The 2016 election will determine who controlled the US House and Senate. Specifically, can the Democrats recover from their 2014 losses and retake at least the Senate? The most interesting puzzle is the Republican Party debate on how to win the Presidency. Will a moderate who appeals to independent voters and disaffected Democrats be the most likely winner? Or, as many Republican leaders argue, will a more deeply conservative candidate generate more interest, excitement, and support?

The other feature of the 2016 campaign season is the decision by southern states to launch a Super Southern Primary, in early March. This will force candidates to campaign in the south after Iowa and New Hampshire.  That has been a bone of contention for at least three decades because often Iowa and New Hampshire reduce the field so quickly that most states never see a candidate during the primary season.

With Texas promising a March 1, 2016 primary the stakes are significantly raised because the state has a treasure trove of delegates. The early primary makes it crucial for candidates to fish for delegates in these states.

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 Take quiz on 2016 Presidential Race

Videos

• Interview with the Governor of Iowa
• Interview with Blake Hanson