Full Reading: Week 4, Section 1

2016 Presidential Race

Dr. Steffen Schmidt 

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The 2016 Presidential elections are especially interesting because there is no incumbent President running for reelection. An “Open Race” such as this offers opportunities for surprises and gives the party out of power (the Republicans) a chance to retake the White House.

This election poses interesting challenges to both political parties.

For the Republicans the question is what kind of candidate is most likely to win the general election in November. For the past two contests the GOP ended up nominating establishment candidates who lost the election.

In 2008 Arizona Senator John McCain tied for third place in the Iowa caucuses with Fred Thompson at 13%. Mike Huckabee won with 34% and Mitt Romney was second with 25%. McCain is conservative but seen by the Republican Tea Party conservatives as part of the inside Washington “establishment” of the GOP.  He was also seen as too boring so the Republicans pushed Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. They lost.

Then in 2012 former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied with 25% of the caucus vote, Texas Congressman Libertarian Republican Ron Paul was second 21%, and Former Speaker of the House and Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich was third with 13%. Romney went on to win the nomination but lost the general election.

This has led many conservatives in the Republican Party to argue that the GOP has been losing, because they have run candidates such as McCain and Romney who are not conservative enough. Therefore, in 2016 many Republicans are were pushing for a much more edgy and sharply conservative candidate such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Surgeon Dr. Ben Carson, or Mike Huckabee.

In fact, the 2016 Republican field began with a bonanza of contenders including:

Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Peter King, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio Links to an external site., Brian Sandoval Links to an external site., Rick Santorum Links to an external site., Scott Walker Links to an external site., Sarah Palin, even Donald Trump

The Republican season began with the announcement by former Presidential contender Mitt Romney Links to an external site. that he would not run. This shook up the dynamics of the entire coming campaign.

The Republican leadership was delighted but also apprehensive of this huge number of contenders. In recent Presidential elections the debates of potential candidates were too big, unfocused, and divisive. The fondest hope of Republicans was that the Iowa caucuses would “winnow the field” – reduce the number of surviving contenders by, as they say, “killing off” the weakest. [i]

The Democrats had a different problem. Early in the season there were no declared candidates and only former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was mentioned as a candidate. This was seen as a potential blessing and curse.

On the positive side, in the Iowa caucuses Clinton could campaign with lean funding having no opponent in the contest hoarding her millions for the general election. She could also avoid a divisive and nasty competition with Democratic opponents and start from the very onset to attack the Republican Party and their candidates.

The negative of an uncontested caucus and primary season is that there is no enthusiasm in the base of the party. A single candidate also would raise much less money from small, individual donors. While in 2016 huge Super PAC’s and billionaires will fund both campaigns, it is very important to solicit contributions from individuals. The reason is that when a person gives even a small amount to a candidate they feel literally “invested” in that candidate. That means they are also more likely to vote for that person.

A second disadvantage of an uncontested caucus and primary season is that Clinton would not be challenged on her experience and on issues. That means she would miss the “training camp” of a vigorous, competitive caucus season in Iowa. She would then go into the general election against her Republican opponent somewhat unprepared for the attacks that would come from the Republicans. 

Democrats were hoping that several Democrats would jump into the contest against Clinton. Names that were mentioned early in the season included Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland, Jim Webb, U.S. Senator from Virginia 2007–2013 and U.S. Secretary of the Navy 1987–1988, and Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana 2005–2013.

The most dramatic development early in the political season was the announcement by the billionaire Charles and David Koch brothers that they would be pouring $889 million into the 2016 elections. Koch Industries is the nation’s second-largest privately held company. The brothers are each worth over $40 billion. 

“… dismantled restrictions on independent corporate and union expenditures in federal elections.” (Reuters)

Lawrence Hurley writing for Reuters also reported that, “The [five] conservative justices in the majority emphasized the free speech rights of corporations under the U.S. Constitution and found that the government had no right to regulate political speech. The court's [four] liberals warned that such unfettered campaign spending would have a corrosive effect on democracy.”

Four years after Citizens United in the 2014 McCutcheon ruling[ii], the Supreme Court overturned individual limits on donors who contribute to more than one candidate, party or political action committee. This opened the final floodgate and has virtually eliminated restrictions on spending by individuals.

The 2016 elections will be the most expensive in the history of the United States.

[i] iowapoliticalcaucus.blogspot.com Links to an external site.

[i]http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2008/2008_08_205 Links to an external site.

[iii] McCutcheon v. Fed. Election Comm'n, 893 F. Supp. 2d 133 (D.D.C. 2012) [2012 BL 251166] 

 Test yourself on 2016 Presidential Race

Videos

• Interview with the Governor of Iowa
• Interview with Blake Hanson