Module 3 Think Like a Futurist: Terms & Definitions

FUTURIST  \ˈfyü-chə-rist\, n.

In it's simplest form, futurists are those who look to and provide analysis of the future.

Today, almost anyone can become a futurist, but those who regularly study the future know there are many terms, processes, and methodologies that need to be mastered and applied strategically in order to be effective.

(William Gibson coined the term "cyberspace Links to an external site." in his short story "Burning Chrome Links to an external site." (1982) ~Wikipedia)

The following resources will help provide a working definition of what a futurist is, what they do, the methods they apply, and generally how they approach their craft.

A Futurist is: 

• Acceleration Watch: Futurist (definition) and Twelve Common Types of Foresight Thinking
• World Future Society: futurist defined Links to an external site.
• Association of Professional Futurists: What is a futurist? Links to an external site.
• Metafuture.org (Sohail Inayatullah): And what is a futurist? Links to an external site.

Key Terms in Futures Studies:

• For-Learn:
• Futures Study Links to an external site. definition
• Technology forecasting Links to an external site. definition
• Foresight Links to an external site. definition
• Key terms used in foresight: An A to Z of Foresight Links to an external site. list of terms with links to definitions
• Sohail Inayatullah metafuture.org: futures studies working definition Links to an external site.
• O Texts: online, open-access textbooks: Forecasting Links to an external site. explanation
• World Future Society: Dictionary of Foresight Terms and Definitions
• i09 website: Terms Every Futurist Should Know
• Global Forum on Agricultural Research: Glossary of Terms Commonly Used in Futures Studies Links to an external site.

Futuring Processes:

• Association of Professional Futurists: [the planning process]: 
• A futurist’s analytical process falls into five general areas:
• Framing - understanding the current state of affairs
• Scanning - looking for indications of the future
• Describing - explaining or reporting on possible futures
• Visioning - opening the range of possibilities
• Planning - creating/implementing a future direction

• "Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight," edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop. Social Technologies. 2007.
  • Review by Patrick Tucker of Hines' and Bishop's book with processes listed and explained. Links to an external site.
  • Processes (similar to APF's above) include: framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and acting

• University of Hawai'i:
• Jim Dator. (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School Links to an external site.. Journal of Futures Studies. Vol. 14(2): 1-18.
• Components of a Futures Visioning Process Links to an external site. (in order to be applied):
• Appreciating the past
• Understanding the present
• Forecasting aspects of the futures
• Experiencing alternative futures
• Envisioning the futures
• Creating the futures
• Institutionalizing futures research

• Sohail Inayatullah - metafuture.org Links to an external site.

 

• "Six Pillars: futures thinking for transforming Links to an external site." paper (PDF)
• The six pillars of futures studies brief outline description Links to an external site.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures studies: six pillars poster Links to an external site.

 

Forecasting Methods:

There are numerous methods futurists employ at any given time to provide the most inclusive forecasts as no one method is all encompassing. However, by far the most widely used method by futurists and within the futures studies field is scenario planning. Links to an external site. The following resources provide several explanations for scenario planning and some of the other more commonly applied methods:

• World Future Society’s Futuring Methods [common forecasting methods]:
• A few of the most common techniques for assessing and forecasting future events
  • Brainstorming
  • Gaming
  • Historical Analysis
  • Modeling
  • Polling
  • Scanning
  • Scenarios
  • Trend Analysis
  • Trend Monitoring
  • Trend Projection
  • Visioning

• For-Learn Links to an external site. Futuring Methodology:
  
  • "Foresight studies rely on a wide variety of methods. Some of these methods can be applied in different ways. Choosing and applying the right method for a specific exercise is a crucial step in any Foresight process. Each method is best suited to certain specific objectives, context, resources, culture and the mindset of the team and participants, and will prove inadequate if these conditions are not met."
  • Description of main methods interactive table Links to an external site.

• The RAND Corporation Links to an external site. Futures Methodologies:
• Delphi Links to an external site.
• Strategic Planning Links to an external site.
• Probabilistic Forecasts Links to an external site.
• Other Methodologies Links to an external site.
• Futures Links - Methodologies Links to an external site.

• Institute for the Future (IFTF) Links to an external site. Foresight Tools:
• Foresite Tools and descriptions main page Links to an external site.
• Signals Links to an external site.
• Scenarios Links to an external site.
• Forecasts + Perspectives Links to an external site.
• Maps Links to an external site.
• Artifacts from the future Links to an external site.
• Immersive videos Links to an external site.
• Collaborative forecasting games Links to an external site.
• Foresight engine Links to an external site.
• MMOWGLI Links to an external site.: (Massive Multiplayer Online Wargame Leveraging the Internet)
• It is an "online multiplayer game Links to an external site. used by the US Navy Office of Naval Research and other U.S. government agencies to perform online wargames in order to study various problems and hypothetical scenarios."

      Roadmapping:

• Acceleration Studies Foundation Links to an external site.
• ASF "is an educational 501(c)(3) nonprofit engaged in outreach, education, research, and selective advocacy with respect to issues and processes of accelerating change."
• Roadmapping: A Collaborative Foresight Tool Links to an external site.

• Albright Strategy Group Links to an external site.
• Roadmaps and Roadmapping, Technology Futures, Strategy
• Richard E. Albright, Ph.D. "brings more than 25 years of experience in technology planning, strategy development, systems engineering and product development to clients in industry and government."
• Ten Reasons to Roadmap Links to an external site.

      Environmental Scanning:

• ASAE: The Center of Association Leadership Links to an external site.
• The Basics of Environmental Scanning Links to an external site.

• Journal of Extension Links to an external site.
• JOE "is the official refereed journal of the U.S. Cooperative Extension System."
• It "expands and updates the research and knowledge base for Extension professionals and other adult educators to improve their effectiveness" and "serves as a forum for emerging and contemporary issues affecting Extension education."
• A 10-Step Process for Environmental Scanning Links to an external site.

      Backcasting:

• The Natural Step Links to an external site.
• Their vision is for "a world in which human society thrives within nature's limits" and their mission is "to enable the actors within society to use sustainability as a set of design principles to innovate, succeed and co-create vibrant futures together."
• What is backcasting? Links to an external site.

• Cognitive Edge Network Links to an external site.
• CEN "is at the leading edge of developing approaches that allow organisations to absorb uncertainty, create resilience and detect weak signals which more conventional approaches would ignore." 
• Backcasting Links to an external site.

      SWOT Analysis:

• MindTools Links to an external site.: Essential skills for an excellent career
• SWOT Analysis Links to an external site.

• The Impact of Technology on Business Links to an external site.: University of Waterloo, Canada
• This is a class site which supports a course in The Strategic Management of Technology, offered by the Department of Management Sciences.
• The course "considers the integration of information technology strategy and business strategy and the impact that information technology can have in many areas of business activity."
• SWOT Analysis: Putting technology into Corporate Planning Links to an external site.